Publications

Medical Scribblings - 04 November 2003

I’ll have been working here in Elsenham for 30 years at the end of September.

Most of you will have seen evidence of a road traffic accident. Smashed up cars by the side of the road, ambulances screaming along, injured friends and relatives. They seem an everyday event.

But if I were to ask you if you had any experience of a train accident very few could easily recall one. Sure, one sees pictures on the TV but these rarely happen to you or me.

What I am trying to point out is the perception of risk and how we judge it. With the railways there are investigations, the tracks are closed for upgrading etc etc whilst with the roads we just accept the risk. The closure of the rails forces more of us onto the roads and increases our probability of being involved in a nasty accident.

When it comes to healthcare the whole thing is a complex balancing act between benefits and risks. A favourite one with the media is the question of giving babies the MMR vaccine. It all hinges on statistics and probability and other such terms which I find difficult enough to get my head round even after being taught the subject. Every packet of pills now has a leaflet explaining possible side effects of the drug. This can be very useful at times as patients realise that side effects are being caused by a particular drug. It does have the down side however in that some of the side effects are extremely rare yet can so terrify the patient that they will not take necessary treatment.

Our job as Doctors and Nurses is to try and put into context some of the pluses and minuses of the options that are available so that you can be reassured that you are getting the best treatment. It’s not always an easy task.

I am reminded of the quotation from Winston Churchill “there are lies, dammed lies and statistics”. He was wrong of course for without the statistics we would have lost the second world war.

John Schofield